Optimal Play

It is imperative to choose the optimal play.  Today I’ve heard a counter to a bull fighter pass would be to shoot your legs up into the air to lock on a triangle or high guard.  Considering the three variables Options, Position, and Scale; I believe this would be a terrible mistake and would be less that 50% effective.  Gordon Ryan, when facing a step around pass, bring his torso towards his opponent while at the same time brings his knees to his chest to get underneath his opponent. He then usually goes for one leg and bring the opponent over to take the back.

Marcelo Garcia operates in a similar way by clearing any possible cross face and moving his leg away then into a 180 degree guard recovery.  By using his legs or a short roll to reset. 

Poker and Jiu-Jitsu: The Fundamentals Exposed

Jiu-jitsu is like a game of poker. Because each play is based on probability you make choices on what you believe is optimal.  Winning players use techniques most appropriate to gain advantage over their opponent.   The concept of poker is relative because you do not know if your opponent is technically strong but you must find out quickly to win.  

Core Fundamentals

There are three core fundamentals to look at in a poker game which are chip stack, position, and cards.  You can see chips and position but not the cards.  You can see his size and relative strength (chip stack) and where he moves to first (position) but you can not see what his technical strengths (cards) are or what he plans to use.  

Statistically propitious you must attack first because it will open up the opponents game and expose your opponent.  Then you can rationalize on how best to control the match.  Set up a position that is optimal to your game play.  At the same time you execute your techniques with optimal probability to succeed. 

Starting Hand Chart
Starting Hand Chart

In poker there are 3 variables that are always changing.  Your chip stack, position, and cards.  These factors have relationship to each other.  If you have a small chip stack (< 10 blinds) you will be much more likely to push all-in at any given time. A large chip stack would give you more power to over bet to frustrate and bluff opponents.  

The position you have give you an immediate advantage considering the players before you have folded their hands.  If you are sitting on the button, cut-off or raising seat and are in the game with a player you know to see every flop, this is a good opportunity to bet 5x blinds + 1 blind for every other player in the hand.  This will increase your probability considering you have entered the game corresponding my suitable hand:position chart.

The cards you hold are the last factor in developing a strong game.  If you raise/attack aggressive/assertive a lot, you are unpredictable.  If you are call/fold passive/defensive a lot, you won’t see much action when you have a favorable hand.  Unless you are playing with a group who is unfamiliar with these fundamentals – which is much more common than you think. 

Setting these three concepts together will help establish a foundation to read people.  Like Mike Caro stated is his book “Theory of Poker” – you will be eventually achieve a level where you think about what your opponent thinks that you think he’s optimal play will be.  Using these concepts will open up your competition and exploit them with optimal strategy.

From a fundamental standpoint of utilizing chips, position, and cards it is easier to relate poker to Jiu-Jitsu.  Because there is a larger emotional account, people enter at a different scale, and techniques gaming and strategy are different among all players.  Move with the most proficient probability and do your best to exploit any weakness and you will optimize your game.

Poker and Jiu-Jitsu: The Fundamentals Exposed

Jiu-jitsu is like a game of poker. Because each play is based on probability you make choices on what you believe is optimal.  Winning players use techniques most appropriate to gain advantage over their opponent.   The concept of poker is relative because you do not know if your opponent is technically strong but you must find out quickly to win.  

Core Fundamentals

There are three core fundamentals to look at in a poker game which are chip stack, position, and cards.  You can see chips and position but not the cards.  You can see his size and relative strength (chip stack) and where he moves to first (position) but you can not see what his technical strengths (cards) are or what he plans to use.  

Statistically propitious you must attack first because it will open up the opponents game and expose your opponent.  Then you can rationalize on how best to control the match.  Set up a position that is optimal to your game play.  At the same time you execute your techniques with optimal probability to succeed. 

In poker there are 3 variables that are always changing.  Your chip stack, position, and cards.  These factors have relationship to each other.  If you have a small chip stack (< 10 blinds) you will be much more likely to push all-in at any given time. A large chip stack would give you more power to over bet to frustrate and bluff opponents.  

The position you have give you an immediate advantage considering the players before you have folded their hands.  If you are sitting on the button, cut-off or raising seat and are in the game with a player you know to see every flop, this is a good opportunity to bet 5x blinds + 1 blind for every other player in the hand.  This will increase your probability considering you have entered the game corresponding my suitable hand:position chart.

The cards you hold are the last factor in developing a strong game.  If you raise/attack aggressive/assertive a lot, you are unpredictable.  If you are call/fold passive/defensive a lot, you won’t see much action when you have a favorable hand.  Unless you are playing with a group who is unfamiliar with these fundamentals – which is much more common than you think. 

Setting these three concepts together will help establish a foundation to read people.  Like Mike Caro stated is his book “Theory of Poker” – you will be eventually achieve a level where you think about what your opponent thinks that you think he’s optimal play will be.  Using these concepts will open up your competition and exploit them with optimal strategy.

From a fundamental standpoint of utilizing chips, position, and cards it is easier to relate poker to Jiu-Jitsu.  Because there is a larger emotional account, people enter at a different scale, and techniques gaming and strategy are different among all players.  Move with the most proficient probability and do your best to exploit any weakness and you will optimize your game.

Probability in Jiu-Jitsu: How to Dominate the Game

When moving to approach an opponent whether it is verbal or physical always choose a probability that is > 50% (greater than 50 percent) or the best alternative to counter.  Why do top players in Jiu-Jitsu seem to have an edge each time in their game?  Is it the number of moves he knows that you do not?  Unlikely.  Is it his mastery and execution of technique? This could be true if it is a specific technique.  Is God saying that this isn’t your time to win yet?  No.  The real answer is in the mathematics of the sport.  Just like with all sports.   Solve the phenomenon and defeat the toughest players at the gym.  Probability will consider the execution of high probable baits, switches, counters, and engagements to control the match.  The players that win are the one who move with the highest probabilities. 

The initial grips in a match can be effective because they act as first contact.  If you see Gordon Ryan he almost always engages in a way that will lead him to a seated guard.  He does this to impose his game because he knows he is >50% to arrange control in his favor.  His grips are very sticky from this position and his guard is mobile enough to attack, sweep or for his opponent to reset.  By sitting down he is >50% able to establish initial grips and dominate the fight.  He had done this against Cyborg in ADCC 2017 and repeatedly in ADCC 2019 where he won double gold in his division and in open weight.  

Baiting your opponent is effective and deserves a section on its own.  One technique is a leg-over from a failed cut through pass.  This technique has been done by Saulo Ribeiro as floating pass and Marcelo Garcia as a leg-over pass.  When you are standing against open guard the attack is ready once your knee is higher than your opponents knee. The knee is higher so put your other leg forward to set up as bait.  This is another technique that is successful >50% of the time.  Once the bait is set, your opponent is likely to reach underneath to set up a sweep.  Drive your knee toward the other side and drop your hips onto your opponent as your leg whips over with enough momentum to change everything and cut through to the other side.  This is a high probability pass where the angle is low-resistance and drop or stay onto your opponent so your elevation is low.

The best players at your gym beat everyone because of thinking in terms of probabilities.  An example of this style of technique would be when you go for your opponents neck, then he bring his hands up to defend and releasing any control he had on you – weather its your feet, sleeve, lapel, leg, or torso. Once the grip is released and moves to block to your hands, you will be able to switch back to your initial pass or sweep.  Marcelo Garcia done his switch technique exceptionally well with his arm-drag and x-guard against Renzo Gracie in his ADCC debut after he looks to perform a seated arm drag and would run into a posted leg to stop his momentum.  Marcelo Garcia would immediately switch to x-guard increasing his chance to sweep Renzo and win the match.  Another example of the bait and switch from Marcelo Garcia is from head quarters position. When his opponent grabs his feet he is able to back-step allowing a low pass to the side of his controlled foot.  He then reaches for the neck to lock a guillotine and when he feels his opponents hands come up freeing his legs he repositions to headquarters and initiates an and x-pass or cut-through.

When you choose technique that have probabilities that are >50% that also meant that they will miss or fall apart at most 49% of the time.  This could be an initial takedown or a sweep and these techniques will happen to you most in the begging of the match.  Someone who is particularly fast at a takedown or setting up a sweep you aren’t familiar with happens all the time.  If you are truly prepared it will happen <50% and that will hopefully give enough recover and reinitiate your attack for you to win.  A strong sense of awareness could help you recover and reengage.  A strong sense of awareness means to keep moving.  Especially when you are vulnerable to loose a critical position.  This will change his game and could give an opening to impose your own game.  If you are able to comeback follow through with your game move with the high probability techniques and you will win a lot of the time.  

Once you have a strong collection of moves or your coach has taught you, practice them regularly.  Repetitiously.  Frank Bettger, Baseball Hall-of-Fame recipient, had one of the lowest batting averages int he MLB.  He addressed this issue by going to the field and giving a nickel to young lads to throw pitches at him.  He done 300 pitches everyday for several years.  At the end of his career he is the Hall-of-Fame and has one of the best batting averages in baseball.  His strategy of training repetitiously allowed him to feel the timing and movement which increased his batting average significantly. This concept of repetition is a best practice that will push you forward and will help to dominate Jiu-Jitsu and life. 

The players who are the dominating players at the gym aren’t the ones who have the most mat time.  They are the players who move with the highest probable success.  Mat time is not relevant without understanding your opponents game.  Whenever an opponent imposes his game on you, it is critical for you to identify quickly by countering to nullify the engagement and reverse the action to impose your game.  Consider what your opponent is trying to do and consider what is the highest probability you can use to dominate the match.  After repetitious practice of what you consider to be high probability moves you will elevate success and become a very tough opponent as a competitor and training partner. 

References:

mginaction.com

Marcelo Garcia: Advanced Jiu-Jitsu, by Marcelo Garcia

University of Jiu-Jitsu by Xande and Saulo Riberio 

flograppling.com – Gordon Ryan 2019 ADCC

How I Raised Myself From Failure to Success in Selling by Frank Bettger