Jiu-jitsu is like a game of poker. Because each play is based on probability you make choices on what you believe is optimal. Winning players use techniques most appropriate to gain advantage over their opponent. The concept of poker is relative because you do not know if your opponent is technically strong but you must find out quickly to win.
Core Fundamentals
There are three core fundamentals to look at in a poker game which are chip stack, position, and cards. You can see chips and position but not the cards. You can see his size and relative strength (chip stack) and where he moves to first (position) but you can not see what his technical strengths (cards) are or what he plans to use.
Statistically propitious you must attack first because it will open up the opponents game and expose your opponent. Then you can rationalize on how best to control the match. Set up a position that is optimal to your game play. At the same time you execute your techniques with optimal probability to succeed.
In poker there are 3 variables that are always changing. Your chip stack, position, and cards. These factors have relationship to each other. If you have a small chip stack (< 10 blinds) you will be much more likely to push all-in at any given time. A large chip stack would give you more power to over bet to frustrate and bluff opponents.
The position you have give you an immediate advantage considering the players before you have folded their hands. If you are sitting on the button, cut-off or raising seat and are in the game with a player you know to see every flop, this is a good opportunity to bet 5x blinds + 1 blind for every other player in the hand. This will increase your probability considering you have entered the game corresponding my suitable hand:position chart.
The cards you hold are the last factor in developing a strong game. If you raise/attack aggressive/assertive a lot, you are unpredictable. If you are call/fold passive/defensive a lot, you won’t see much action when you have a favorable hand. Unless you are playing with a group who is unfamiliar with these fundamentals – which is much more common than you think.
Setting these three concepts together will help establish a foundation to read people. Like Mike Caro stated is his book “Theory of Poker” – you will be eventually achieve a level where you think about what your opponent thinks that you think he’s optimal play will be. Using these concepts will open up your competition and exploit them with optimal strategy.
From a fundamental standpoint of utilizing chips, position, and cards it is easier to relate poker to Jiu-Jitsu. Because there is a larger emotional account, people enter at a different scale, and techniques gaming and strategy are different among all players. Move with the most proficient probability and do your best to exploit any weakness and you will optimize your game.