When moving to approach an opponent whether it is verbal or physical always choose a probability that is > 50% (greater than 50 percent) or the best alternative to counter. Why do top players in Jiu-Jitsu seem to have an edge each time in their game? Is it the number of moves he knows that you do not? Unlikely. Is it his mastery and execution of technique? This could be true if it is a specific technique. Is God saying that this isn’t your time to win yet? No. The real answer is in the mathematics of the sport. Just like with all sports. Solve the phenomenon and defeat the toughest players at the gym. Probability will consider the execution of high probable baits, switches, counters, and engagements to control the match. The players that win are the one who move with the highest probabilities.
The initial grips in a match can be effective because they act as first contact. If you see Gordon Ryan he almost always engages in a way that will lead him to a seated guard. He does this to impose his game because he knows he is >50% to arrange control in his favor. His grips are very sticky from this position and his guard is mobile enough to attack, sweep or for his opponent to reset. By sitting down he is >50% able to establish initial grips and dominate the fight. He had done this against Cyborg in ADCC 2017 and repeatedly in ADCC 2019 where he won double gold in his division and in open weight.
Baiting your opponent is effective and deserves a section on its own. One technique is a leg-over from a failed cut through pass. This technique has been done by Saulo Ribeiro as floating pass and Marcelo Garcia as a leg-over pass. When you are standing against open guard the attack is ready once your knee is higher than your opponents knee. The knee is higher so put your other leg forward to set up as bait. This is another technique that is successful >50% of the time. Once the bait is set, your opponent is likely to reach underneath to set up a sweep. Drive your knee toward the other side and drop your hips onto your opponent as your leg whips over with enough momentum to change everything and cut through to the other side. This is a high probability pass where the angle is low-resistance and drop or stay onto your opponent so your elevation is low.
The best players at your gym beat everyone because of thinking in terms of probabilities. An example of this style of technique would be when you go for your opponents neck, then he bring his hands up to defend and releasing any control he had on you – weather its your feet, sleeve, lapel, leg, or torso. Once the grip is released and moves to block to your hands, you will be able to switch back to your initial pass or sweep. Marcelo Garcia done his switch technique exceptionally well with his arm-drag and x-guard against Renzo Gracie in his ADCC debut after he looks to perform a seated arm drag and would run into a posted leg to stop his momentum. Marcelo Garcia would immediately switch to x-guard increasing his chance to sweep Renzo and win the match. Another example of the bait and switch from Marcelo Garcia is from head quarters position. When his opponent grabs his feet he is able to back-step allowing a low pass to the side of his controlled foot. He then reaches for the neck to lock a guillotine and when he feels his opponents hands come up freeing his legs he repositions to headquarters and initiates an and x-pass or cut-through.
When you choose technique that have probabilities that are >50% that also meant that they will miss or fall apart at most 49% of the time. This could be an initial takedown or a sweep and these techniques will happen to you most in the begging of the match. Someone who is particularly fast at a takedown or setting up a sweep you aren’t familiar with happens all the time. If you are truly prepared it will happen <50% and that will hopefully give enough recover and reinitiate your attack for you to win. A strong sense of awareness could help you recover and reengage. A strong sense of awareness means to keep moving. Especially when you are vulnerable to loose a critical position. This will change his game and could give an opening to impose your own game. If you are able to comeback follow through with your game move with the high probability techniques and you will win a lot of the time.
Once you have a strong collection of moves or your coach has taught you, practice them regularly. Repetitiously. Frank Bettger, Baseball Hall-of-Fame recipient, had one of the lowest batting averages int he MLB. He addressed this issue by going to the field and giving a nickel to young lads to throw pitches at him. He done 300 pitches everyday for several years. At the end of his career he is the Hall-of-Fame and has one of the best batting averages in baseball. His strategy of training repetitiously allowed him to feel the timing and movement which increased his batting average significantly. This concept of repetition is a best practice that will push you forward and will help to dominate Jiu-Jitsu and life.
The players who are the dominating players at the gym aren’t the ones who have the most mat time. They are the players who move with the highest probable success. Mat time is not relevant without understanding your opponents game. Whenever an opponent imposes his game on you, it is critical for you to identify quickly by countering to nullify the engagement and reverse the action to impose your game. Consider what your opponent is trying to do and consider what is the highest probability you can use to dominate the match. After repetitious practice of what you consider to be high probability moves you will elevate success and become a very tough opponent as a competitor and training partner.
References:
mginaction.com
Marcelo Garcia: Advanced Jiu-Jitsu, by Marcelo Garcia
University of Jiu-Jitsu by Xande and Saulo Riberio
flograppling.com – Gordon Ryan 2019 ADCC
How I Raised Myself From Failure to Success in Selling by Frank Bettger